Heavy Rain & Potential Flooding on the Horizon.

Models seem to be coming into agreement on another low pressure or pair of low pressures bringing moisture to the region once again. It seems at this point and time we will have one low that will cut thru to the west and bring a cold front across the region. Then another area of low pressure looks to develop along that front and ride up along the coast. The question remains..does the cold air come in before the second wave rides up the coast? Or does the cold air come in after the wave goes thru? While it is a bit to early to speculate with complete confidence…

At the present time there is only one model that seems to suggest that the cold air will be in place as the second wave rides up that front and that is the GFS. However..it really has no precipitation to the west of the low. All the precipitation comes thru with the first wave and the cold front itself.

Now 6 Z GFS in the overnight areas actually suggested a snow/ice storm for the interior regions. However..12 Z has backed off that idea though it still has cold air in place..However..pretty much as stated it is alone.

Here you see the first wave to the north and the second developing to the south.

Cold front lies along the coast and the low pressure rides up the coast and after 144 hrs brings a chance of snow into Northern and Coastal New England..

GGEM continues its continuity with its phased system and would bring a significant amount of rain into the region.

UKMET appears as if it would fall more in line with the ECM as far as the tracking of the second wave is concerned but it appears it may be closer to the coast as well and a bit further to the south.

Nogaps also develops the wave further to the south and looks as though it would deliver alot of heavy rain as well into the region.

The question that needs to be answered between now and then is just how far east does the cold front make it with the colder air before the area of low pressure rides up the coast and along it? If the cold air is able to make it into the region before that wave..then we could be looking at a more wintery scenario. However, if its delayed then of course we would be looking at a more wet scenario with the 2nd wave.

At this present time we are not in agreement with the GFS as we believe it has to much cold air coming in to fast. It is the only model to show the 2nd wave nor really effecting the area.

One thing is clear..out ahead of the cold front will once again be warmer/milder air with temperatures in the 50s. Just about every piece of guidance we have looked at shows prefrontal rains and the potential exists for heavy rains ahead of the cold front..and though way to early to say..perhaps the potential again for some thunderstorms.

Now..crediting towards the GFS solution would be the ECM means as they appear to be closer to the GFS but it still seems like the ECM means would be further west then the GFS is. So we will monitor this time frame for the potential of heavy rain and perhaps some wintry weather as well…