Instead of complaining about a busted forecast we wanted to point out the reason why things are not going to transpire the way that they were originally being modeled. This was originally pointed out by DT so all credit goes to him for noticing it even though the models did not catch on to it till today. Notice looking at the radar the moisture that is diving NE across ARK? This is from what is called a Kicker low and the problem becomes there is not enough wave length space between that kicker low and the low pressure trying to develop. So this does not allow the low pressure to do negative tilted soon enough ..which causes its rapid development to be delayed until it gets past our latitude..and essentially till it nears Cape Cod..
In other words..things happen to late. Basically since the storm is going to be weaker at our latitude ..the precipitation is going to be weaker…the temperatures are going to be more marginal..IF this storm would had deepened where it was being modeled to , up until today, off the coast of the Delmarva /SNJ area then we would still be looking at and talking about a Major snowstorm for areas further south.
Just so happens that its all coming together too late so those to the south do not benefit but the further north you go and are closer to that deepening..you will benefit.
So with that said the area from PA into NW NJ has the biggest bust potential… there is a chance that the storm does not gather enough moisture to even reach the totals that are shown ..especially Lehigh County area ..into NW NJ..or the temperatures may be to warm.
Highest totals still once again will be in highest elevations and the lowest totals in the lowest elevations.
We will continue to monitor this and Nowcast the scenario in case the chance that there is more surprises in store with this developing system.
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