Perhaps to add more confusion to this already confusing forecast..the latest data on the 18 Z GFS comes out very similar to last nights 00z ECM. One difference being the heaviest QPF on the GFS is more to the east..
As you can see the GFS has switched gears and switched over to a Major Coastal storm forming and moving up along the coast as it deepens down to a sub 980 MB storm. In our opinion a sub 980 mb storm should have more QPF associated with it on the western side of the system but those details will be ironed out as we head closer to the potential event.
Now lets look at the means of the GFS..
Very strong signal on the GFS means for a significant Nor Ester.
Now, people are starting to ask “Well when does the 18 Z GFS ever come true?” Well first of all lets look at the ECM means to answer this question:
You can see that the ECM has system #1 at 96 hours and it has a follow up system at 120 hrs that moves up the coast. These ensemble means give credence towards the 18 Z GFS & its means and being that the OP ECM essentially lost the 2nd system..& its means has it…we generally expect tonights 00z ECM to go back to a solution quite similar to last nights run.
The potential does exist for this storm to drop some heavy rains and snows across the region. It is still to early to determine where the rain snow line sets up and whom will get what..
Stay tuned for more information on this developing late winter storm!
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