We have talked about the importance of the high pressure system that has been setting itself up off the coast of the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast. We mentioned how if this pattern stays in place it would virtually allow systems from the South or Southeast to literally track up across and thru the region bringing its rains & depending on the systems ..its heavy rains with it.
Once again we see this same thing happening with a system that will be developing off to the Southwest which has no choice (because of that high pressure) but to cut across the region and probably to the west of us in a similar fashion to the last system. The only question is ..does this one create another area of low pressure down south..or do we deal with just a primary?
As the GFS/GGEM agree on the low pressure moving thru the area bringing another round of rain to the area. This time it looks as though the rain will be light to moderate compared to the last two events but as we have been stressing with all the rainfall the area that has received even this is going to be a bit to much at the present time. This rain will only tend to aggravate the flooding situation that is still occurring in some places.
The ECM & UKMET seem to take the system a bit further to the west then the rest of the guidance but they as well deliver a light to moderate rainfall across the region.
So models are in agreement with the next system being a rainmaker across the region with some frozen on the northern fringes of the system. However..the exact track still is not etched in stone.
At this point and time we still think that a general .25-.50 with locations up to 1.00 inch of rain is the most likely scenario.
We will continue to keep an eye on this situation because as noted it will not take that much rain to aggravate the flooding situation.
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