Its pretty much a given that once the European Computer Model depicts a Great Lakes Cutter..it almost never drops away from that idea. So for the purpose of this discussion we are referring to the ECM 00z .
We have talked about how this current system that will be coming thru from the 31st to April 2nd time period was going to be a pattern changer & this is exactly what the 00z ECM is showing.
As you can see ridging is going to be coming into the east with an area of low pressure tracking up towards the Great Lakes region. Now what is so special about this? Well you can see colder air coming down behind this system..This colder air looks to be only temporary ..However..if the ECM is correct… You should prepare for and expect a severe weather outbreak!
Why? I am going to use ABE as an example of what the ECM is suggesting. At 18 Z Wed the ECM has the surface temperatures in the lower 70s. In a 12 hr span these temperatures drop to the upper 30s..This would be a 34 degree drop in temperatures in a 12 hr period.
On top of that the 850s are in the 15 degree C range..to drop below 0 over the next 12 hrs.
Again..if the ECM is correct with its scenario we can expect a Severe Weather Outbreak the 6th of April!
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