Models do continue to show that the weather will be taking a turn back to the colder side with temperatures below normal but this is still not until we get into the 8-10 day time frame. The European Computer model which was suggesting a rain to snow storm across the area yesterday at 12 Z has since backed off that scenario. It has become significantly warmer with the system and further north with the track. It is not till after this system that the weather actually turns colder but as it does it also dries out.
As you can see it is now very warm out ahead of the storm with ridging out in front but becomes colder as the storm system passes. This system does bring the threat of rain to the area and perhaps even some thunderstorms as well.
While the UKMET only goes out to 144 hours you can see as well that it sends ridging out ahead of the system that is has in the midwest.
Now from looking at the GFS..it would seem to imply that a frontal boundary sets up and to the north of this front would be colder air and then to the south would be the warmer air..
You can sort of see how it has precipitation working along the front. Considering the GFS is different and colder from the rest of the guidance we are going to consider this model an outlier.
The one thing that the models do agree on however is that it will get colder after this system and a trough will be in position along the east coast. They also agree that it will be dry during this troughiness period.
We do feel that the aspect of a frontal boundary setting up as shown by the GFS is the correct thinking but its positioning of that boundary is too far to the south. We feel that front will be further to the north..Essentially North of the PA/NY border..This front will serve as the dividing line between the warmer air and the colder air.
So it looks like the return of winter like temperatures are still on track but the return to snow looks like it might have gotten derailed. We will continue to keep an eye on this situation!
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