Threat # 2 On The Horizon

Well threat # 2 is the one that we started talking about yesterday & today the model runs have actually started to back off somewhat on this threat.

The GGEM actually has no threat in this time frame what so ever. Some are saying that last night the model did indeed have the threat on it but they would be sadly mistaken or getting the time frame confused with another system..

Here was last nights 00z GGEM

You can see there is high pressure in control across the region and that pretty much is in agreement with todays GGEM.

Again, you can see from the image above that there is high pressure that is in charge across the area so with the GGEM there has not been a storm threat. Another thing i want to point out on the GGEM is the lower right hand image if you look at the black line that is suggesting that the region would be quite cold in the 850 level.

The GFS however does have a system on its horizons ..however as you can see above it keeps this system off to the south and east and it also becomes a little on the warm side cause it completely misses the phase.

So thus far we have the GFS which is south and east & the GGEM which has no storm. The 18 Z GFS still has the system but it cuts it off over the Southeast off the coast of Florida.

The European Computer model..

Also has a system but it as well is off the coast and really is just a miss to the east of the region. Again on the ECM you can see that the 850s are pretty cold and a nice trough across the east with a ridge into the west.

So , at the present time ..there is little if any model agreement on what is going to happen with this system but at this point and time we would just like to remind you the readers of the teleconnections and what they are going to be doing at this point and time.

1. The NAO is going to be going from negative to positive. When this happens this is referred to as the Heather A signal and usually means a large storm is going to happen along the east coast.

2. The PNA is going from positive to negative.

Now, as a way of throwing caution with the guidance out at our readers we want to show you what the most progressive bias model does with this system. Keep in mind that this is a coastal system that we are talking about…

Interesting huh? Remember…the bias of the model generally implies that the rest of the guidance would be too far south and east with this system. Something to keep an eye on and see how this model trends along with the rest of the guidance..Perhaps a sign that the bigger threat still does exist and the teleconnectors are indeed correct…