We been thinking that the GFS has been to far south and we still see no compelling reason to change from this thinking. Matter of fact if you look at the ensemble means you can also see that they are indeed coming more north and getting warmer as well..
The above was from the most recent update that was issued a few hours ago. Since that time the 00z GFS has come out and more or less has fulfilled what we thought in reference to the model.
Indeed the model has come further north as anticipated..However..the model is still suggesting from about east central PA to NE PA this system would be cold enough to support a snowstorm. If the GFS were to be correct it would produce Warning Criteria Snows on the order of 5-7 inches.
This is just one piece of guidance and its a piece of guidance that is correcting northwards over its last several runs and we feel that this is still not done with its correcting. GFS usually is not in its prime time until we are at 72 hrs and under.
Stay tuned for further updates as the 00z guidance comes out!
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