The Rest Of 12 Z Guidance- ECM adds confusion!

The rest of the 12 Z Guidance is in from the last update…and with the ECM just in now it becomes a question of whether or not this is going to be two systems or one system and when?  Before we get to the ECM however..lets look at the 12 Z UKMET/NOGAPS/GGEM.

You can see the 12 Z UKMET is still supporting a powerhouse type of system which would still probably rival 1993. This would result in some very heavy rains with some flooding issues thruout a good part of the region.

The 12 Z NOGAPS sticks to a similar track as its 00z run..however at the 850 level it is colder then last nights run. This would still be a pretty large QPF system and powerful storm.

The GGEM which last night was missing the party has now joined closer to the majority of the guidance with a 994 MB low just off the coast of NNJ at 132 hrs out.

Now here is where the model madness and mayhem lies …the 12 Z ECM which just came out is alot faster which results in a weaker Northern stream energy..which causes things to not be as amplified ..which does not allow the baroclinic zone to pull back closer to the coast..so it scoots OTS. This is generally more in line with the GFS. Red flag? Could be..time will tell we will continue to monitor.

However…what this results in is the following:

More emphasis becomes placed on the system for wed/thursday…and using the same place as we used last night ABE as an example..

THU 00Z 31-MAR   3.7    -2.6    1017      80      93    0.03     556     543    
THU 06Z 31-MAR   0.9    -3.3    1012      98      98    0.25     552     542    
THU 12Z 31-MAR   0.3    -2.5    1010      95      99    0.27     548     540    
THU 18Z 31-MAR   1.8    -3.0    1008      87      71    0.05     545     538    
FRI 00Z 01-APR   0.7    -4.3    1008      98      63    0.04     541     534    
FRI 06Z 01-APR   0.1    -4.8    1007      99      34    0.01     539     533

Would still lead to a storm that would probably provide parts of the region with a wet snow storm but now we are talking about an earlier system and not as powerful of a system.

So with the 12 Z guidance it seems as though we have the ECM/GFS focusing on the wed/thursday time period.. which the rest of the guidance such as the GGEM also have… (UKMET has this further south not effecting the region) ..but these two models (GFS/ECM) have no focus on the second system between 120-132 hrs.

At this point and time we are not going to change any thinking from what we have previously talked about. We have already mentioned that there could be two threats in this period with the wed thur threat and then another one for friday. The thinking still remains the same but it will have to be watched to see if it is indeed going to be two separate systems or one larger system that effects the region.

Perhaps 00z model runs will clear things up a little later tonight.

Stay tuned for further information!