Could Be Major Flooding Concerns-Flood Watch Issued

Flood watch is being issued by Real Wx Services. This flood watch is in effect for Wednesday night (midnight) to Friday 6 Am …for PA..NY & NW NJ.

In a similar fashion to this last system that went thru..another system is going to take AIM on the region ..once again providing the area with potentially very heavy rains. Further complicating issues this time will be some of the region that will be prone to abundant rainfall now have a fresh snowpack on the ground which will contribute to the water content available causing flooding concerns.

A Flood Watch does not mean that flooding will necessarily happen but if the conditions expected come to pass..then the flooding will become more of a reality and a warning will be issued. Confidence level in flood warning criteria being met at this time is fairly high.

Lets look at the latest afternoon guidance and we will start with the model that we feel is once again the outlier in the scenario with being too progressive ..The GFS..

By 96 hrs the GFS has this system already moved thru the region. This we feel is to progressive compared to the rest of the guidance. On the opposite end of the spectrum ..serving as another outlier but this one on the slower side. That would be the GGEM..

The GGEM would have this system effecting us from about 60 hrs out thru 132 hrs out. We feel that this is to slow…although ..correct in the aspect of a slower moving system..compared to the GFS for example.

Total GGEM precipitation. While this is likely over done on the western side because of it being to slow..it shows the threat of very heavy rainfall. That heavier amount in the west will probably verify more from Central PA and east and not quite that extreme.

Precipitation maps only go to 72 hrs on the UKMET but you can see that this also would imply a heavy rainfall threat.

ECM actually starts precipitation between 54 and 60 hrs out and does not move precipitation out of the region until 108 hrs out. So the ECM is implying a long duration rainfall event with about 48 hours of rainfall and the below map is what the ECM is suggesting as far as total QPF..

If the GGEM/UKMET/ECM are correct in there outlooks flooding will become a MAJOR concern and we feel at this point and time it is prudent to issue that Flood watch so that people can be prepared in the case of the event becoming a certainty.

There is also the chance with this system that we may have some thunderstorms ahead of the cold front and a possibility that some areas behind the cold front could once again turn to frozen precipitation. This is something we will have to monitor and will not be known till a little closer to the event.

Stay tuned for further updates on this developing scenario!