March 22nd & 23rd Snow Looking More and More Possible

The GFS has been suggesting for quite a few runs now that this time period could bring a potential snow storm to the region. We have been stating that it started off with being to south with the solution it was showing and since that time it has moved further to the north. The European Computer model has also been moving to the north with this system and is not starting to come in a little bit more amped up with the system. All operational models are suggesting what appears to be a late season snow event and one that could actually consist of warning criteria snows.

It seems a little hard to believe that after just obtaining a record high temperature of 77 degrees yesterday that we could be talking about a warning criteria snow event for parts of the region.

So lets look at he latest guidance and see what it is suggesting..

You can see that the GFS is suggesting that the areas north and west of KPHL could be looking at a late season snow storm. This would appear most likely away from the major city itself if this were to occur. However..its not just the GFS that is suggesting this as you are about to see..

 

 

The 12 Z GGEM is along the same line of thinking with perhaps the colder air being a little further south then what the GFS is showing..which is somewhat surprising considered the GGEM can run a warm bias from time to time. So perhaps this is an indication that the GFS is now to far north . Overcorrected for its prior southern solution.

The UKMET also appears to be on the same line of thinking…

And now as of 12 Z European Computer Model (which really started adjusting northward last night) has come into a similar solution..

Matter of fact the ECM has come in with about .85 liquid in the ABE area which it is cold enough at the surface and the 850 level to produce snowfall. In places like AVP the ECM has come in with about an inch or slightly more with cold enough surface and 850s to produce a snow event. In other words if the ECM is correct places from East Central PA into NE PA could be looking at a wet snow event with the potential of 8 inches (south) to 10 inches North.

At this point and time we are not going to jump on to the guidance but we have to step back and acknowledge that at this point and time the guidance is pretty much all in agreement on another snow event & ironically enough this snow event would occur once we have turned the calendar season into Spring.

Now, perhaps ..as a cautionary note it would be wise to realize that while the operational run of the GFS is suggesting snow..its ensemble means would be suggesting rain and further north still with the track..

So its not completely clear whether or not this will be a snow event or a rain event but it is certainly on the table as a potential snow threat.

We will continue to update this with each set of the model runs as they come out!