March 24th To Be Or Not To Be is the Question!

People have been saying all around the internet that we have one more snow event coming. That March can not go out without one more final snow storm. If you think back to last year in March this was a March that had no snowfall thru a vast majority of the region including KNYC,KPHL, KABE..

As you can see there was very little snowfall across the region in March of 2010. So, for those to say that March can not go without a snowfall they seem to be forgetting recent past weather history.

Another thing we have to keep in mind is some of the teleconnections and whether or not they are favorable..

For instance the MJO or Madden Julian Oscillation is in the COD or the Circle of Death. For east coast snowstorms you want to see the MJO in either Phase 7,8 or 1 of which Phase 8 is the best overall for east coast snow events.

The arctic oscillation is positive and you really would like to see this negative allowing cold arctic air to sink south into the USA..

So..the NAO which is going to go negative and the PNA which is going to go positive briefly are the only two teleconnections that are favorable for those that are hoping for one final snow event in places like NYC, PHL, ABE etc.

So with the above said lets look at the latest guidance and see what it is showing in this time period that we are referencing.

European Computer Model brings very light QPF into the region when the air is actually marginally supportive for frozen precipitation. Surface temperatures still stay above freezing even though the 850s are cold enough but the QPF by this time is very meager with the majority of it falling as rain.

Not really into the UKMET range to determine the precipitation amounts etc but it seems to be pretty suppressed with the system by 144 hours…

GGEM up thru this point and time is wet and warm or mild across the region and sometime between this frame above and the next frame it does become cold enough to support some frozen QPF..

The GFS on the other hand seems to support a mainly frozen event across the region.

Now if you have been following the GFS model we have learned one thing so far this season and prior seasons and that is the GFS has a cold bias and a southeast bias from time to time in the medium range. These biases can apply even to the ensemble means. So is it the bias in play here with the colder solution?

We believe at this point and time it is. If you have been following this system ..it was just 24 hrs ago that the GFS had this system so far south and east it was not really even effecting the region.

As you can see by looking at the above image from the GFS from last nights 00z run. So, as you can see the GFS has been working its way back north and warmer with the system versus what it was doing just 24 hrs ago.

Now when we look to the 12 Z Nogaps…a model that has a southeast bias as well..

We see a system that is further north and also quite wet before the boundary starts to push south and perhaps turn things over to the frozen side.

We been thinking that the GFS has been to far south and we still see no compelling reason to change from this thinking. Matter of fact if you look at the ensemble means you can also see that they are indeed coming more north and getting warmer as well..

6 Z

Same time with the latest 18 Z run..

Even the GGEM ensemble means seem to suggest that at hours 132 the GGEM is to cold and to far south..

Make no mistake about it there will be colder air coming but that cold air should come in on the backside of this system once it has worked its way thru the region.

While its too early to say for certain whether or not this will provide the area with snow fall..it does seem apparent that there will be a system that will provide the area with rainfall.

At the present time i would say that the greatest chance for any snowfall with this system would be further to the north up into NY state and north of there & perhaps a change over on the backside into places like the Poconos and NW NJ..

We need to see more compelling evidence to suggest that this would be an all out snowstorm or even a snowstorm into the big cities within guidance. At the present time …there is little guidance to support this .

We will continue to update you on the latest situation and determine whether or not March goes out without a snowstorm in the big cities or not.