The first threat coming up is about 120 hrs out or less. The models are really not in agreement on this particular threat at this point and time. Essentially we have the GFS and the UKMET that are pretty much similar in thinking with the ECM trending towards the GFS. The GGEM appears to be out in left field with this system compared to the rest of the guidance.
So we are going to take a look at this first system and we will look at the 12 Z runs as well as the 18Z runs.
The above is the 12 Z GFS and as you can see it has a system effecting the area and at this point and time it appears as though some of the Northern Areas would start off as frozen..however..as warmer air starts to move in at the surface it appears as though this would change over to rain after the hours shown above.
As you can see the 18 Z GFS above is fairly similar in its depiction with overall the same outlook and solution.
The European Computer model also has this system but it appears to be a tad bit slower with the timing then the GFS.
Temperatures on the ECM are in the 30s and 40s and the QPF with the system is on the paltry side compared to the GFS.
The UKMET is overall pretty similar and redevelops the area of low pressure off the SNJ coast. All and all when looking at these three models the way the systems acts reminds me of the one that just moved thru the region with its snowfall. One main difference is this system is not going to be originating as far north and may work a bit more south as the time nears.
Now the GGEM on the other hand would be the southern outlier..
The GGEM as stated is on the southern edge of the guidance and would not have this system effecting the Northeast in any fashion.
So overall, within the next 4-5 day time period it looks like a system could provide parts of the region with some more wet snowfall as well as some rain across the region.
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