After what has seemed like endless rainfall, endless above normal temperatures…if one were to look at guidance today they could be under the impression that winter could make a last stand with below normal temperatures and a return to an accumulating wet snowfall.
We notice that the NAO is anticipated to go negative as well..
This coupled along with a weakening La Nina and a retrograding North Atlantic Block over the next 10 days. These factors at the very least could result in temperatures becoming more winter like about a week from today.
And , the guidance shows the potential for a storm in this time period. Of course the GFS is much more progressive then the ECM.. Lets look at the guidance from 12 Z
The GFS has a system that would basically be a rain changing to a snow scenario during this time frame.
European computer model has precipitation moving in by about 192 hrs. 850s and surface are a little to warm at that time frame but by 210 hours out..and thru 240 hours out the ECM has the region from basically N of the PA/MD line (north of KPHL) on the receiving end of a snow event after some initial rain. The difference between the two models is on timing as the GFS is faster and a shorter duration while the ECM is a longer duration.
So according to guidance there is the potential for a return to winter like temperatures and even the potential for a return to winter like weather with snow. Again, this is long range & likely to change but the support from the NAO/Blocking is there and if one recalls we mentioned about watching 10-20 days down the road the models because of that huge trough that was near Japan and how that teleconnects to colder and stormy weather along the east coast.
So, something to keep an eye on & monitor and see whether or not winter can indeed make one last stand!
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