As we just discussed on the prior update for the system on the GFS that has the potential to cut off due to the blocking in the Atlantic..this system has huge implications for a few days later. If this blocking develops and our system cuts off..once it begins to lift on out it lifts into the 50/50 position…According to the GFS..this then allows the next system to take a southern route with cold air in place and develops a snowstorm across parts of the region. Basically from PA and points to the North.
The 18 Z GFS showed this scenario and then the 00z GFS continued the scenario and it does now have support from the ensembles. This is all highly dependent on the system prior becoming cut off, the blocking in the Atlantic, and then the cut off becoming a 50 50 low.
The above was the 18 Z GFS…
This was the total QPF for the system at 18 Z..
The above now is the 00z GFS which continues the theme from 18 Z GFS. It is important however to keep in mind what is needed for this to happen as being shown on this model.
Another important thing to keep in mind is that the ECM at 12 Z during this time frame was the complete opposite with a very warm look across the east.
However, the one thing the GFS does do is give a glimmer of hope to those that were disappointed with the fast ending to winter and the warm rainy weather.
We will continue to monitor this scenario and see if winter does have one last trick up its sleeve or if indeed this is just a trick by the GFS!
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