Threat #2 This Is Where It Gets Interesting!

As we have been discussing for a couple days now..the teleconnections that are in place reflect and represent the potential for a heather A signal storm system to effect the east coast.

The details on such a system are not known at this time but its interesting to see that basically all guidance , at least in the ensemble means show the potential of this system. Operational models also have the system, some alot weaker and disorganized AKA GFS and some missing to the east AKA ECM. Lets look at the guidance on this system..

The GFS as stated above falls into the disorganized and weak system which is off to the south and the east.

Not to much change when looking at the 18 Z GFS..it still has a really disorganized system and still generally off to the east and not effecting anyone outside of New England.

However, when one looks at the means we get a completely different story..

You can see on the means for the time range out we are talking about a pretty strong signal for a coastal storm to effect the region. Really not that much difference with the 18 Z means either.

The operational GGEM has a pretty potent system and it is actually an inside runner. As modeled the heaviest snows from this system would be over far interior or western regions..

12 Z UKMET which only goes out to 144 hrs shows what would be a potent storm coming up the east coast as well..

European Computer model has this at 144- 168 hrs out..

However, in its means we get this ..

As you can see the means of the models are showing a very strong signal for a coastal storm in this time period..even though the operational models are shifting around the details. This can generally be expected at this point and time.

This storm could if it indeed does come about provide the region with heavy wet snows and heavy rains with coastal flooding. We would need this system to phase the southern stream energy together with the northern stream and we could then be talking about a potent spring Nor Easter on our hands in this time period. Certainly something we will continue to keep our eyes on and continue to update you with the latest information as it becomes available!