Real Weather Services early preliminary thoughts.
Low pressure will begin to develop and organize itself over Southern Arkansas on Sunday evening. This area of low pressure will have no problem with tapping into the Gulf of Mexico so there will be an abundant source of moisture.
This area of low pressure should head in an ENE direction and be over Kentucky by monday morning early afternoon.
What happens from this point and time is the main question and what Real Weather Services is looking at. In order to answer this question one must consider the pattern that is and will be in place. Both the major models of the ECM and the GFS are showing an extremely negative NAO ...We also have a very strong negative AO and we also have a strong negative EPO. One teleconnection we are lacking is a positive PNA. These teleconnections would suggest that blocking is in place and quite a strong block at that.
With these teleconnections & blocking in place this should result in a primary heading from KY towards SW PA . Once this primary senses the block in place..this should cause a handoff to a secondary area of low pressure. This secondary area of low pressure should develop over the VA area and then proceed to move NE off the coast of the Delmarva and then Northeast of there.
If one steps back and looks at the scenario unfolding on the models..One says to themselves..I have seen this before. That is correct. The storm that just dumped 5 inches of snow on NYC evolved in much the same fashion. Primary headed to SW PA and a secondary developed and then moved NE.
Now..the difference between last time and this time is that there is going to be a much stronger push of Warm air Advection due to the system being stronger and more moisture laden. This means that places such as MD, SNJ, SE PA around the PHL area should be prepared for a start as a wintry mix but then changing over to very heavy rains. Flooding issues will potentially become a major concern in these areas. NYC also should be concerned about some very heavy rains. Further inland and N & W away from the coast at this point and time would be looking at an all snow event. It is possible that the wintry mix to rain scenario could be further northwest then what is indicated on this map.. however at this point and time with all the above teleconnections in place...we believe inland locations should be primarily snow.
Real Weather Services will continue to update on this potential Winter Storm.
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