Now lets look at and compare the 00z GGEM means to the 12 Z GGEM means
As you can tell i really like the use of these side by side images as they make it easier to compare solutions
As you can see those means are pretty consistent with a colder solution as well...
So once again...its not just the GFS so the SE bias can not be applied...
Neither can any convective feedback issues as there were none mentioned by HPC and if that was the case then the GGEM would have to be suffering from those same feed back issues...
Adding HPC into the equation
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
329 AM EST THU FEB 18 2010
VALID 12Z MON FEB 22 2010 - 12Z THU FEB 25 2010
USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 00Z/18 ECMWF AND 00Z/18 GEFS MEAN FOR
THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAY 3...WITH MOSTLY GEFS
MEAN THEREAFTER. THE 00Z/17 GFS AND GEM GLOBAL WERE NORTH WITH
THE MAJOR WAVE CROSSING THE EAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD...AND ARE NOW SOUTH...WHILE THE 00Z/17 ECMWF AND UKMET WERE
SOUTH AND ARE NOW NORTH WITH THE SAME FEATURE. THIS FLIP-FLOPPING
ARGUES FOR A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION...WHICH THE HEAVY
EMPHASIS ON THE GEFS MEAN AFFORDS THIS PACKAGE. THE BLOCK OVER
THE WEST IS NO CLEARER...WITH THE POSITION OF THE COLD MID LEVEL
CORES A BIT LIKE THE SHELL SHUFFLE GAME. HOPEFULLY...THE LIBERAL
USE OF THE MEAN WILL MITIGATE ANY LARGE ERRORS THIS PERIOD.
CISCO
Notice how it is the GFS means that are being used for after 72 hours...this is highly unusual considering Cisco normally leans heavily on the ECM..
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