Time 4 AM
Date: 2/4/10
Dates effected: Feb 5-8th time period
Level 3 Ruh Roh
Level 3 Areas effected.. All of VA but the extreme SE corner..All of WV, all of MD, All of Delaware...All of NJ...All of eastern PA ..all of Southern PA extending west into Southwestern PA.
Also in effect is a Level 2 "On Guard" for NYC Metro area and Extreme SNE.
Low pressure currently developing over the GOM will continue to build up moisture and slowly start to progress off to the east eventually turning NE and heading to just south of the Delmarva and intensifying rapidly once it reaches the Gulf stream waters. At this point and time the northern stream will phase with the southern stream and cause the system to take on a Negative tilt and this is what will lead to the RI. As this system deepens it will also result in potential for strong winds along the coast.
Looking at latest radar you start to appreciate the size of this system and the qpf that is currently associated with this system will only become more enhanced once it starts to tap into the atlantic.
Due to the above..Real Weather Services Has issued a Level 3 for the above areas.
As for the area that remains in a Level 2. Any slight changes in current storm track and projection would cause NYC Metro and NNJ to go into a level 3.
At the moment guidance is suggesting that the Polar Vortex might keep this from progressing too far north to bring heavier QPF into those regions.
However..signs on the early 6 Z NAM have indicated a northern start of a potential trend and if 6 Z GFS and more importantly 12 Z runs continue this then an upgrade for those areas will be issued.
As has been the case the models have had a tendency to over due the strength and the southward extent of the Polar Vortex and that very well could be the case again this go around. 6 Z NAM indicated less influence from that PV and that is what Real Weather Services will keep an eye on for Level 2 region.
Map issued above still stands as preliminary ..Some adjustments will be made at final map issued during the day later today!
Level 3 Ruh Roh means conditions are favorable and likely across the region.
Stay tuned for any further updates!
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