Severe Weather Potential March 23 2013

We are not seeing the severe weather threat as far north as what the SPC was going with in there day 2 outlook. SREF does not agree with that far north and neither does the NAM which we are going to show here..

First of all lets look at the CAPE..

You can see that the greatest CAPE is down along the Gulf of Mexico. 

This coincides with the area of greatest Lift as well..As to the north there is virtually no lift in the atmosphere..

The greatest EHI is also down along the Gulf coast with Lousiana being the prime region for EHI at 1 or above along with over into Florida.

Helicity is also a non factor in areas further to the north. 

The only severe parameter that is a factor for severe weather in regions further to the north is the shear. However, with all the other parameters being low with little if any CAPE ..there is no fuel to feed the storms.. so further north we think that it will be mainly rains and garden variety type storms so did not include them in the outlook.
Further south into LA we think it is possible that this area could experience some supercells along with tornado potential with the EHI above 1. 

It will also be across the southeast where the trigger will be which is a stationary front and this is where the convection should focus along.

Also the temperatures further north will be cooler with only 40s and 50s while along the gulf coast temperatures will be in the 60s and 70 to 80 degree range.