No change to the previous thoughts!
Level 3 Ruh Roh issued for flooding potential across parts of the region.
Areas effected: WV (due to snowpack) all of PA, All of NJ, all of DE, SE NY including NYC, and Southern New England.
Level 3 is issued when there is consensus on a major storm to effect the region.
A strong upper level low over the midwest will continue to move slowly to the east. As it does it will be sending impulses of energy across the region that will produce rainfall across the region. The heaviest rain appears to be from late in the evening on friday into early morning sunday hours.
This system has the potential to drop a very heavy amount of QPF across parts of the region with 3-5 inches and some locally higher amounts possible.
In the higher elevations of the Northeast this storm could produce a few inches on the backside of the system but anything that falls will have a hard time accumulating due to all the rain that has fallen before hand.
At this point and time Real Wx Services is not expecting any severe weather with this system as Severe Weather Parameters are either quite low or not even in existence for the area. One exception to this could be in the carolinas where some severe potential may be achieved.
At this point and time Real Wx Services is not anticipating any strong winds from this system. We are not anticipating a tightly wound up deepening system but rather a system that is only in the 990-999 mb range and without any RI ..winds will be out of the east at about 10-15 MPH, perhaps as high as 20 MPH at the height of the heaviest rains.
Real Wx Services does recommend that if you have any snow pack around the base of your house and you live in a area that normally floods, to be on the safest side we would suggest removing that snow pack from those areas.
Flooding in poor drainage areas will also be a concern if these heavy rains indeed materialize and this could cause flooding of roads and as always do not drive thru any of these flooded roadways.
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