Maria Update #2

Latest visible image of Maria above from 17:45 UTC. As you can see the center of Maria is exposed and this center is moving towards the west at a very slow speed.

While many people have stopped talking about Maria we continue to follow Maria because if anything MARIA has not been go according to the guidance and MARIA has been well to the south and the west of the NHC track.

Of course we have been talking about the possibility of this occurring on our Facebook page.

So this brings us to the guidance today again which still shows MARIA moving NW and then due North but in order for those tracks to happen and to occur MARIA has to start moving due NORTH almost immediately..

The problem lies in the fact that MARIA is moving to the South of a subtropical ridge. Now all models have had MARIA as a deep cyclone , which would then cause MARIA to find the weakness in the ridge and then begin to feel the influence of the two troughs that are moving off the east coast. First one not all that strong but the second one is strong. This would cause MARIA to get tugged NW then N and then quickly NE OTS. However…a weaker system ..which remains further south has the potential to sneak underneath that weakness in the ridge.

The images above show two things. First image which is the satellite shows the due west movement. Second image is ADT which shows the center confirming that it is west of the convection and also exposed.

Now lets look at the environment surrounding MARIA. Shear across the system is anywhere from 10-30 knots. This is due to an upper level low that is around 25 N and 65 W.  Convergence and divergence is decent across the system but as long as the shear is in place this is going to keep MARIA not only a sheared cyclone but also a weak cyclone which enhances the possibility of continuing to move more towards the west and sliding under the weakness!

So this is the scenarios we are seeing right now:

1. Scenario # 1 is MARIA continues sliding off to the west northwest and comes closer to the state of Florida as a weak tropical storm.

2. Scenario #2 is because of the exposed center MARIA dissipates.

Presently historical probabilities have a 23 % chance of this cyclone making Landfall in NC. This is up from 21% early yesterday!

If MARIA does manage to continue moving west ..the further west she gets before she starts to turn NW would bring her closer to the east coast. Keep in mind that generally storms that make it across 65 W and under 25 N this threat increases. So statistically speaking the east coast threat has increased but in the end it is going to come down to whether or not MARIA is picked up by the trough or not!

Stay tuned cause I believe we are the only ones ..that have been ahead of the game with MARIA..