Katia Update

The above are all latest images of tropical storm Katia. It is very important that we start this off with the disclaimer that should be universally known in the world of weather that once you get into the long range the accuracy of models goes down significantly including the model that is referred to as a King the ECM.

Now lets look at what is happening with the guidance and we only have access to the ECM every 12 hrs so the time is not going to match up but you can plainly see the differences even though there are some saying that there is no differences.

Obviously even the untrained eye can notice the difference between the two runs. What happens is KATIA misses the first trough completely and slides underneath and the ridge builds back west and allows KATIA to have a due west heading until 192 hrs where it starts to head NW and then N and then NE and still keeps it out to sea. But the changes are there in the under 192 mark and there is no way around this DESPITE what some feel.

Now lets look at the GFS which also people are NOT picking up on this as well has come west..

You can see here as well from the 00z to the 12 Z twelve hours difference that at the same latitude the GFS is also further to the west..

Now lets look at the rest of the guidance ..

12 Z UKMET which is only to 120 hours at the source we get it from is actually SW of its bigger brother the ECM..

12 Z HWRF a hurricane model..moves west north west and then starts to bend back to the west ..

12 Z GFDL which is SW of the 12 Z ECM position.

12 Z CMC or GGEM which is also SW of the ECM position.

Finally the NOGAPS which is also SW of the ECM position.

Now the CMC and UKMET have continuously been southwest of the ECM operational.

Now what becomes more interesting and a FACT that most are not reading elsewhere is that the 00z ECM ensemble members only had 2 members showing a recurve…

Click here

So what you are seeing from the guidance now is that KATIA misses the first trough and is able to slide underneath it. But in reference to the ECM what is actually making this start to move towards the NW and N and then NE?

The moral of the story is that we will continue the theme of it is to early to say whether or not this will impact the east coast . On the same token there should be no talk of this being a fish storm because it is too early for that kind of talk.

If you see that talk it boils down to people forecasting what they WANT to happen.

Stay tuned! We will issue a new tracking map later tonight or tomorrow!