Tropical Update & Other Thoughts!

 

We are looking at two different systems in the image above. The system at the top is Tropical Depression #7. This is the system that in the update yesterday we stated “we would not be surprised to see this upgraded to a tropical depression” in the next 24 hrs..if it could shake off the dry air. Well as of 11 PM within that 24 hrs it has occurred.

Now if you been reading comments along the side of the blog ..they are coming from an accu weather forum member who is 15. He stated that dry air is 200 miles from an invest center and stating that is “ ridiculous”  and yet we see the following from the NHC discussion on this depression:

“

.AS WELL AS
ADVECTING UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR INTO THE DEPRESSION.  IN ADDITION...
A LARGE PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR ARE
APPROACHING THE DEPRESSION FROM THE EAST. “

Does that sound like 200 miles to you? No not at all..I was also told that my forecast was a complete bust..well I said within 24 hrs..I would not be surprised to see it upgraded to a depression…folks it was in about 12 hrs or less. It was given a 50% chance because of the dry air on all sides. 

We only update the tropics once a day because we have other responsibilities..so if something happens during the time frame when we are not able to be at the pc because of supporting a family etc ..we are not going to be able to update and say its now at 70% or 80 % etc . However, for someone to call something a busted forecast when it happened with in the time frame stated…is well flat out not correct. 

Any forecaster knows that you can not give something a greater then 50% chance of development when you have a lot of dry air around a system…as that dry air gets ingested and causes slow development to occur. 

Again NHC says “

THE ABUNDANT DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM SHOULD AT LEAST SLOW
INTENSIFICATION.” 

They also think that we should not rely on the ECMWF computer model but yet we see NHC says “ 

WITH THE FORECAST BEING
A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFDL MODEL FORECASTS”

Folks it is a known weather fact that the ECM model is the better performing model with in 48 hrs. 

These statements that are being discussed are coming from a young teenager from accu weather forums. I find it remotely strange that I am not a member of that forum any more and yet some from that forum still feel threatened by the forecasting. Threatened enough that they have to make statements like above that are blatantly false.

Folks we will continue to do what we have been doing and that is providing you with tropical updates every 24 hrs and looking at the environment around these systems as has become expected of us by the followers. 

Now moving on… the next issue is 93 L. We mentioned that we felt that only had a 10 % chance of developing in which NHC at one point felt it had a medium chance of developing. We stated that the environment around it was not supportive of that happening. 

National Hurricane Center took 93 L down to 0% and since then it has been deactivated so its no longer shown on the map.

So that is just another example of knowing the environment can lead to a more accurate result.

Now the system to the SE of TD 7 is 92 L ..

This is a better look at 92 L..Folks NHC has this at 30% and recon is going into investigate it tomorrow.

In our opinion this already looks better then TD # 7 and feel its quite possible that this is already a Tropical Cyclone..IF this maintains convection as it currently has we would not be surprised to see this upgraded later on today.

The one wildcard is interaction with TD # 7..if this occurs then its possible that both systems may end up cancelling one another out.

We will watch this over the next 12 hrs or so and then resume tomorrow night around midnight…

Stay tuned for more information