The above map is based on the latest SREF/NAM/GFS blend.
CAPE is 500-4000 depending where you live in the map above!
Lift Index is 0 to – 10 depending on where you reside.
Lapse Rates are 5.5-7.5 depending where you are located!
One thing that will be lacking is shear unless you are in the south central plains states where there will be 40 knots of shear.
We had a warm front lift thru the NE bringing in some more humid weather and with that came some heavy rains and isolated storms. Currently we have a cold front that is half way thru the state of PA in a west to east type fashion. However to the north of this is yet another front with a low pressure over the lakes and this front also goes back to the west to a low over SE colorado.
It is these fronts that will be crossing the area that will bring with it the chance of showers and thunderstorms but the timing of the front looks to be in the overnight/early morning hours so we are not anticipating much in the way of severe in the PA area. More along the lines of Garden variety storms with heavy rains are possible.
The chance of showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing as it appears multiple s/w’s will develop along this front and it will stall just south of the region. This will keep the area on the receiving end of some potential for wet and perhaps severe weather.
Any storms that do manage to go severe will be capable of hail and straight line winds in excess of 60 MPH and very heavy rain.
The greatest threat of severe should be from Ohio and points to the west and south .
Stay tuned for more information should it become necessary!
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