First thing you notice about the most recent visible image above is that the center of emily has been exposed. In other words you are looking at a naked circulation. Many people are surprised by this as they have been thinking that this is going to become a hurricane. We have been talking about the problems Emily has been facing from day 1 and how this would only cause slow development. Quite frankly, we were a little surprised to even see this become organized enough to get upgraded beyond depression stage. Its convection has been mainly in a pulsing style from its conception and it has always been a complete disorganized mess.
As you can see from the above images besides the center being exposed you can see shear of 10-20 knots and close to above 20 knots and dry air. This dry air has been around since the beginning and has been and will continue to plague Emily.
Vorticity is still tilted from SW to NE and while there is some convergence the best lies to the SE while the COC (exposed) continues to move west. The best divergence also lies behind the system.
As you can see the steering currents would continue to track this off to the west. Perhaps somewhat north of west.
Emily is still expected to track off to the NW but if she continues to remain weak she may just keep tracking off towards the west. This would mean she would miss the islands and perhaps if she ever does start to turn NW she may become more of a GOM threat.
We think the more likely course is that if the COC continues to move west and decouple away from the convection then Emily is just going to diminish into an open wave trough.
Stay tuned for more information
No comments:
Post a Comment