The above is a water vapor image of Tropical Storm Gert. Tropical storm gert is a smaller then your average Tropical Cyclone. The reality of it is a very compact sized tropical system. And as we stated from the get go with this system it would continue to feel the effect of dry air. This dry air , when a system is as compact as Gert will combine with even light vertical shear and help to slow down the intensification process!
We feel that GERT has reached its peak in intensity. Over the next 24 hours GERT will begin to move over cooler waters as it moves North-Northeast and this should begin a weakening process.
Now the above image is 93 L. If you remember we were the ones who said that 93 L was not going to develop with in 48 hours when NHC had the system up to 40% for developing.
We also were following the ECM guidance which kept this system weak and on a westward path. It should be evident by what is happening with 93 L that the ECM was indeed correct in not developing this and keeping it weak on that westward path.
Looking at the environment around the system we can see that there is dry air off to the west of the system which is the direction this is moving. However..that dry air is also moving west. Shear is only around 5-10 knots across the system & the system has decent convergence and divergence in its favor.
Our current thinking is that this should continue to move off to the west for the time being and could develop to a tropical cyclone with in the next 72 hrs. Likely to become a threat to the Yucatan area .
So within the next 48 hours we will go with a 40% chance of development..however we think better likely hood would be between 48-72 hrs out.
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