Tropical Storm Irene Update 8/22/11

The above images are the latest images of Tropical Storm Irene which as of 11 PM is just under hurricane strength with a pressure of 993 MBS. Since that time Recon has found lower pressures around 989 MBS..

We had originally laid out this track and scenarios with the possibilities in the following map below:

As you will see when it comes to the new map we have not really strayed too much from the original thinking we just laid out the track a little bit further.

Looking at the conditions as of 00z

Shear as of that time was around 10-20 knots, however, there is an anti-cyclone in the upper levels with Irene and the shear has NOT been hindering intensification by any means. Divergence was good , convergence on the other hand was lacking and the vorticity was also good.

Irene has been becoming better organized and more defined over the evening hrs .

With the steering currents in place IRENE should continue to move off to the WNW around the Subtropical Ridge. However, a long wave trough is expected to move into the Western Atlantic & this should allow Irene to find a weakness in the ridge and Irene should start to move more towards the NW.

If guidance is correct the ridge will then build back towards the west and this would allow Irene to essentially move North or even NNW along the Eastern Seaboard.

This is the 00z GFS and its current thinking ..

Now for the tricky part of the forecast..Intensity. We think that Irene has a shot at becoming a Major Hurricane before she makes landfall anywhere from Florida to South Carolina should be on standby!

The best chance for this to be achieved is IF IRENE can stay away from going over the mountains of Hispanola. If she steers north of Hispanola then we feel that this could become a Major Hurricane.

Places further up the coast are also urged to keep an eye on this.

So here is what we are thinking:

If this track does happen then along the east coast we would be looking at some rough seas, gusty winds and heavy rains! Also depending on how strong IRENE can manage to become they can spawn off some tornadic activity as well,

Stay tuned for more information.

Starting later tonight after midnight thru wed AM we will constantly be updating this !