Irene has passed the area which made a category 1 landfall at little egg inlet in NJ. After dropping 5.01 inches of rain and a peak wind gust of 62 MPH in Allentown , PA on the south side..this was recorded and Observed by Bobby Martrich with Lehigh Valley Weather Patrol with Bobby and Suzy.
With IRENE now over for the most part outside of some rains still continuing in the Northeast with wraparound showers in PA ..we turn our attention to the next system which is invest 92 L and say here we go again!
At the present time the system has a 70% chance of developing and this is because the models are pretty firm on this developing..despite its appearance now!
The system at the present time is in very good convergence and divergence however..shear at the present time is in our opinion effecting the system and hence its appearance..
The above image shows 30-40 knots of shear present as of 18 Z.
Since this is in the long range we are going to only show what the models are suggesting . We are looking at a system around 10 + days out give or take ..
Last nights GFS showed a recurve way out in the atlantic with no effect on the east coast. Todays 12 Z GFS continues this theme but not as far out as last nights run.
European computer model last night looked like this:
Which by day 9/11 had a hurricane along the east coast by NYC. Today, however , looks like this:
Which if this were to go out further would seem to suggest a recurve as well.
Now..what we do know is that this should continue to the West or West north west for some time as it is being steered by an abnormally strong sub tropical ridge.
We do find it interesting that one of the members of the ensembles looks like this:
So to sum things up:
A. This system should develop into the next tropical cyclone and has the potential to become Katia
B, This system should continue to move West North West being steered by the STR
C. It is to early to know what track this system will take and at what strength but to keep in mind that in the spread and different runs of the models …some “potential” could be possible for another system to effect the east coast!
Stay tuned for the next update which will be in 24 hrs!
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