The above is the latest visible and water vapor shot of Tropical Storm Emily. Tropical storm Emily is just to the south of Hispanola. This area is known as shredderola because of its abilities to shred tropical systems. However..lets look at the environment around Emily to see what else could be effecting her:
As you can see by looking at the above images that the shear is still around 10-20 knots around the system. While this will not destroy a system it will indeed cause development to be more slow. Convergence and divergence is decent ..however..the vorticity has become more elongated and stretched then it was yesterday when the last update was issued. Dry air is still on all sides of this system but it is not quite as dense as it was yesterday at this time off to Emily’s west and northwest..
If one recalls the model guidance history with this system the global models were in a split camp. GFS was developing this system and taking a hurricane off the SE coast. ECM however kept the system generally weak with each run and veered a weak system towards Fl. Now both these models are suggesting a very weak system if not basically diminished system.
So besides the shear and the dry air that Emily is still dealing with there is still a question of what is Hispanola and Cuba going to do to the system? We mentioned yesterday about the weaker the system stays the more West it will move compared to NW because of the steering currents that were in place. Steering currents have not changed to much and this would continue to be the case that she would move WNW.
Convection appears to be moving NW on the latest loop but it looks like the LLC lower level circulation is still moving off to the West. So we are still dealing with a weak system and perhaps this is an indication of a further weakening or decoupling. We will have to see what is left of Emily once Emily does come on the other side of Hispanola or Cuba.
Right now we are still leaning towards becoming an open wave heading towards Florida.
Stay tuned for further updates!
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