Folks this is an interesting image. Perhaps you are wondering why this image is so interesting? It is interesting because you see not only 93 L but you also see 92 L and you can see in this image just how close together the two waves actually are.
This makes a forecasting challenge. What happens is you have two tropical waves so close together that they actually fight for supremacy. Sometimes this can cause one to cancel out cause the greatest vorticity is being used by the other etc. So lets see what is going on with 93 L and if you read 92 L ..you basically know since they are in the same location that basically the environment will be the same.
As you can see by the image above 92 L has the greatest vorticity around it as 93 L above represented by the “red I” is outside of that greatest vorticity area.
Some divergence is occurring with 93 L but the greatest area is still south while it is lacking convergence which the greatest area is off to the west or NW .
Unlike 92 L ..93 L is contending with shear in the range of 20-30 knots. And just like 92 L ..93 L is also surrounded by dry air..
So, the reality of the situation is that 93 L basically has the same problems that have to be overcome by the system in order to develop and it remains to be seen because of the close proximity of the two tropical waves if they do not compete for the available potential to tap into and cancel one or the other out.
Guidance is the same as posted on the previous post and that is the ECM does nothing in the next 48 hrs where as the GFS develops this into a Tropical Cyclone.
Again because the ECM is higher resolution and a more superior model we will lean towards the side of slow development and put the chances at this developing in the next 48 hrs at 10%..
Stay tuned as we will continue to monitor the situation !
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