August 6th Severe Weather Potential

The above map is based on the latest SREF with a blend of the NAM/GFS

CAPE ranges from 500-4000 depending on where you live within the zone

Lift Index ranges from 0 to –10 again depending where you are in the zone

Mid level lapse rates are 5.5-7.5 depending on where you are..

Poor midlevel lapse rates are over the mid atlantic region so severe chances here would be lower then out in the midwest to the plains.

Shear is greatest in the lakes region where 30 knots + can be found..

Stationary front resides across the southeast-stretching from west to east with a low pressure over NW GA and another low pressure over the OK/TX panhandle. This stationary front is being the focus for showers and thunderstorms today with some very isolated severe storms.

This front will pretty much stay in place at least thru 12 Z tomorrow morning and then it will begin to lift towards the north as a warm front.

Meanwhile there will be some shortwave troughs that will move across the region above that will be effecting the weather during the day tomorrow. These troughs will be lifting in from the west and one of these shortwave troughs should  develop a low pressure over western/central PA and provide some showers and thunderstorms across the area..Potential for some isolated severe but with the mid level lapse rates being low, lower shear..places in PA may end up with more in the way of garden variety type storms.

It will be these impulses that move thru that will bring that chance for severe. We think the greatest threats will be wind and hail..though some tornado’s can not be ruled out in the plains states to the great lakes region.