Remnants of Emily

National Hurricane Center has more or less been playing up and down with this system. For most of yesterday it started as a 60% chance of redeveloping into a tropical storm..then stewart raises the ante to 70% , now as of today it is back down to 60% but the question is..Is that where it should be? Lets look at some things this early morning..

First of all lets look at the latest water vapor image..

As the image above clearly shows there is not much convection associated with this system..

This is a recent ASCAT pass and you can see this to is not showing much of anything even there at the surface..

Shear continues to not be a problem with this system. With only 5-10 knots of shear this would not be detrimental to development. Convergence and divergence are also decent with the system. So what is the problem.

We feel there are several problems and one of them is once again the fact that this system again has become very broad and elongated. Dry air is also starting to come closer to the system again. Remember the broader the system the longer it will take to tighten up and spin up a center of circulation.

So we are looking at some of the same problems this system has been facing. Another factor could be land interaction.

So the NHC has this at 60% but is there anything with guidance to support redevelopment?

Lets look at the guidance:

12 Z ECM barely even shows a surface reflection.

00z ECM says no tropical depression, storm or hurricane there..What about the GFS?

GFS also shows this as a weak open wave or area of low pressure.

So as you can see guidance from the main global models do not support redevelopment. So , we are not sure what the National Hurricane Center is seeing at this point and time but we would put development of this remnant low of Emily at 10% and that could be generous.

We will continue to monitor this situation but remember we have been ahead of NHC with this from the beginning!