The above is based off a blend of the SREF and the latest GFS.
CAPE across the area is 500-4000
Lift index is 0 to – 6 depending on where you live within the zone marked off above.
Mid Level Lapse rates will be marginal to good from 6.0 to 7.0 depending where you live.
Precipitable water is equal to 1.5 to 2 inches across the region which essentially means that any of these storms will be capable of producing heavy rains..
Shear looks like it will be 30-50 knots mainly across the NE region..
Trigger will be a cold front that by 8 AM (today) will be located off to the west cutting michigan in half. This cold front will continue to move east across the region..approaching NW PA by 8 AM sunday morning. The timing of this front will limit severe weather across western portions of PA and should result in rain and garden variety storms..However a low pressure will develop along this front over the lakes and this should enhance showers and thunderstorms across the area and the greatest chance will be on the eastern side of the NE which will be in the warm sector. The cold front should cross the area shortly after 8 PM and clear the coast by Monday 8 AM.
The greatest threat appears to be large hail and damaging winds in excess of 60 MPJ with the potential for isolated tornado’s if any supercells should form with sufficient shear in place.
Stay tuned for further information should it become necessary!
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