The above map is based off the latest SREF and NAM along with the GFS.
CAPE values will be 500-4000 depending on where you are in the zone above
Lift Index will be 0 to – 6 depending where you are located
Mid Level Lapse Rates will be 5.0-7.0 depending where you are located
Shear will be generally 30-50 knots from PA into and thru the south central USA ..
Stationary front just south of Md Stretching from the east to the west to an area of low pressure over N oklahoma. Another area of low pressure is moving across the southern tier of canada with a warm front pushing east but a cold front draping south thru wisconsin .
Low pressure should develop along this stationary front and move east. Meanwhile the low in Canada will also move east bringing the cold front towards the east. It will be these features along with a trough pushing eastwards that will bring the chance of showers/thunderstorms some of which will be severe into the areas above.
Main severe threats will be winds in excess of 60 MPH and large hail!
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