We posted this last night around 4:30 AM on our facebook page. We are 100% confident in this system becoming a major hurricane. We are also 100% confident on the track thru ten days. The question then becomes whether this is a Bermuda threat or a East Coast threat. That answer is not known at this point and time as it is to early.
However..presently there is 20-30 knots of shear effecting future Katia. If the system stays weaker due to this shear then it will take a more westerly course. Global models suggest the weakness in the ridge should move west as the ridge tries to rebuild this would help a weaker system stay further south and west. If this gets to 25N/60 W and crosses that checkpoint without going above 25 N then the odds increase for an east coast threat!
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