Could we have the first hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic Season?

The image above is 97 L. On the latest water vapor this does not look all that impressive at this point and time.

Latest visible implies that we are dealing with a rather broad system at the present time.

We are going to start off right from the back with this system by saying that it will be several days before this gets its act together. Possibly not until it gets thru and across the Island of Hispanola.

Before then it does not have a friendly environment despite having an upper level anti cyclone over top which is keeping shear at 5-10 knots..

Now these are based off of 18 Z data but as you can see the system has a rather broad vorticity field. Lacking convergence and divergence. And to add on top of that is the following:

You can see how much dry air is around this system and getting ingested into the system at this point and time. In fact it is almost impossible to even see the location of the invest due to the dry air.

So the environment is going to keep the system rather weak which will keep the system on a westerly track.

Now as to the guidance and what will ultimately occur with this system. All the global guidance from the GFS to the ECM to the CMC are all indicating that this storm will become a tropical cyclone and potentially the first hurricane of the Atlantic season.

Last nights ECM took the tropical cyclone into FL which is pretty much what the GFS does with the system today at 12 Z. Today, however, the ECM keeps the system further south and then it makes its way into the GOM.

We are dealing with something that is anywhere between 7-10 days out so the guidance will continue to go back and forth between solutions. The question of where this goes or the ultimate track will likely depend on the strength of the Bermuda High. A stronger bermuda high and the more west this will go and end up in the GOM . The weaker the high then a weakness would allow the system to effect FL to the carolina coast..

At the present time we have not changed our thinking from what we issued yesterday in regards to this system..

There is plenty of time to watch the development of this system. However, this system appears that if it indeed does develop could be the first potential threat to the USA..

Stay tuned for more information