Tropical Update Invest 92 L

The above is a wide view look at the Atlantic Ocean Water Vapor. To the very right of the image in the lower right hand portion of the map is Invest 92 L. Remember this is the invest that was activated that NHC was not even talking about but we were and we put the chances of developing very slim over a 48 hr period.

National Hurricane Center has now chosen to lemonize this with a 10 % chance of development over the next 48 hrs.

Real Wx Services puts the chances of this developing over the next 48 hours at 0%.

Lets look at the surrounding conditions:

Alright from this image we see an anticyclone in place with the invest which means that shear is not going to be an issue even though it is around 10 knots at the present time. This would not be detrimental to development and with the presence of the anticyclone in the upper levels slow development could be possible..HOWEVER…

Another problem that the system is facing is the fact that it is broad and elongated as can be seen by the vorticity image above. That along with the fact that it is still part of the ITCZ. It would have to break away from the ITCZ which means that this will take longer for any system to spin up.

However..that is not the only issue that this invest is facing.

with this image you can see the greatest area of divergence is north or south of the system with no divergence currently. Also the convergence is greatest to the south. But this is just another piece of why this will not develop or have a chance to with in the next 48 hrs. There is an even BIGGER problem that has to be overcome.

This system is surrounded by nothing but dry air. As long as this dry air remains heavy across the invest..it will not be able to develop. That is the biggest problem at this time for the invest to overcome!

Steering currents suggest that this wave should continue to travel towards the west.

Also another factor we have taken into consideration is that the ECM does not develop this within the next 48 hrs.

So to summarize 92 L has some problems that it is facing and needs to over come which the greatest of them is dry air and because of this we feel the chances of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hrs are 0 %.

We will continue to monitor the situation and update this in another 24 hrs.