While away from the internet yesterday Invest 91 L was upgraded to a Tropical Storm. While appearance is looking pretty good the latest recon shows winds at the surface are only 31 MPH…Folks this would not be a tropical storm yet alone a depression if this continues to be the case.
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 27kts (~ 31.1mph)
The same problem that has existed from day 1 with this invest continues to keep development very slow and we can not say that we are surprised by this occurring.
Now, from the last time we updated on this at that point and time shear was only at 5-10 knots. Latest shear suggests that we are actually at 10-20 knots now
Convergence and divergence is good at the present time and the vorticity has decreased ..however..we are still dealing with a broad and elongated system..
Steering winds continue to suggest that this should move off to the west northwest…
As far as guidance is concerned ..ECM essentially opens this up and keeps it as a weak wave and slides it away from the east coast..
You can see this reflected in the 12 Z ECM above.
And the latest guidance curves this away from the USA. Now latest recon since that last report posted above has boosted winds to 50 mph. From what I can see via satellite and water vapor it would appear to be more a pulsating causing the higher winds of 50 MPH. Though recon mentions this is not well organized and they had difficulty with locating the center.
The question becomes what happens with emily? How does hispanola effect it and these recurves would need to start pretty soon and it does not appear that right now steering currents would support a turn to the NW..
If Emily continues heading west then starts to turn NW it could take it directly over Hispanola and Hispanola kind of acts like a shredder due to higher terrain when it comes to tropical systems. IF Emily can manage to maintain a weaker inner core then there is a greater chance of surviving Hispanola and possibly re intensifying.
At the present time..we still do not like the idea of a Category 1 hurricane and are leaning more or less towards the ECM scenario.
Stay tuned for further information!
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