First off we start with the National Hurricane Center and at the realms of the latest update is none other then Stewart. As you can tell by how 93 L increased from 10% to 40 % in the latest updates.
So what we are going to do is we are going to look at 92 L first and we are going to see if we can agree with the 40% chance of development over the next 48 hrs.
We start this tropical tour by looking at a water vapor image of 92 L .
One thing that stands out on that image is the dry air to the west of the system but we can take a closer look into the dry air…
Problem #1
Well this clearly shows that 92 L is ingesting dry air. You want a system to develop this is not something you want to see..
Problem #2
This shows that while the tropical wave is in a good area of vorticity it shows that it is rather stretched out and very broad. Remember a broader, elongated system will take longer to spin up then a more organized compact tropical wave.
Now what you are looking at here is the convergence and divergence. As you can see 92 L has neither convergence or divergence working in its favor at the present time. So this is yet another problem that this system as its developing needs to overcome.
Shear is about 10-20 knots but that’s really not a concern with an anticyclone overhead in the upper levels.
So as you can see from above the environment is not very conducive for development.
You can also see with the latest ECM that over the next 48 hrs it does not really develop the system..
On the other hand the latest GFS does develop 92 L ( along with 93 L).. Being the ECM is a far superior model in the 48 hr and under time frame we are going to have to side with the ECM and put the chances of this developing within the next 48 hrs at no greater then 10%.
As you can tell by this image :
This wave should continue to track off to the west underneath the strong ridge of high pressure…
Next up 93 L and also another look at why either one of these waves could be slower to develop then anticipated by most.
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