National Hurricane Center has not yet recognized this as a Invest but it has been activated and CIMSS Analysis also has it shown as an invest.
This could be the first Cape Verde system this season but the question is whether or not it can actually develop into anything or not.
So lets look at the environment surrounding the system.
First thing one notices is that there is a lot of dry air around this system. This much dry air is almost a complete death sentence from the get go.
Associated with all the dry air is 10-20 knots of shear. While not detrimental alone, with the dry air combination this will prevent development from occurring.
The third thing working against this developing is the broad elongated nature of the system. Remember the more broad and elongated the longer it takes to spin and tighten up a center of circulation.
This brings us to the convergence and divergence which at this present time is lacking across the system. Either south or to the west of the system lies the greatest areas of convergence and divergence.
So as you can see from the information above the chances of this system developing are very low and we would essentially place development in the next 48 hrs as 0 %.
Guidance..the global forecasting system or GFS does develop this system but the latest European Computer Model does not develop the system and right now we would have to lean towards the ECM as it was the model that performed best with Emily.
Stay tuned! Next update on this will be 24 hrs from now!
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