Southeast to Northeast–Stand By!

First off we want to start off by saying anyone that follows us and is familiar with our forecasting and analysis knows that we never HYPE a storm. This is something that we are against doing. On the same token we are also against doing just the opposite or bittercasting or saying something is not going to happen just because “we do not believe it” Weather should never be based on what we “believe” but rather the guidance we have and a understanding of what is happening and occurring & climatology.

With that said..we here at Real Wx Services can not disregard what the European Computer Model is showing when it has been the most consistent model. It was the model that suggested that this would steer to the North of Hispanola and that is what has happened. So lets look at what is happening currently and then we will get into it..

The above are the most recent images of Hurricane Irene. And as you can tell Irene is a very large hurricane. Most recent NHC guidance had the pressure at 978 mbs which has dropped since the 11 PM update indicating some strengthening is occurring!

However we think that shear may be having a little effect on the system but by no means is it having a detrimental effect on the system since it is able to strengthen even experiencing that shear. The shear is 10-20 knots on the latest updated shear map for 6 z..

Convergence and divergence are decent across the system as well.

So all this is conducive for further strengthening.

Steering currents suggest that this should continue WNW for the time being. However, as the map above portrays you can see a trough coming off the east coast into the western Atlantic and what this is going to do is create a weakness in the ridge . Hurricanes generally like to seek out the path of least resistance and this will allow Irene to take a NW turn ..

This is where things then become interesting..latest guidance has Irene moving NW because of that weakness in the ridge ..however..guidance then builds that ridge back towards the west ..or in other words towards IRENE. What this then does is cause IRENE to move on a due NORTH track.

Landfall looks to be around North Carolina to South Carolina at the present time.

Now guidance diverges a little bit..the 00z ECM much like its counterpart at 12 Z takes IRENE to landfall and then moves due NORTH inland on the coast and goes across KPHL & KABE and Albany! Pretty much on par with 12 Z.

Now folks if this happens and occurs we are talking about a Category 1 hurricane approaching the region with winds in its strongest quadrant of about 70-90 MPH, very heavy rains on the order of 4-8 inches + and beach erosion, trees down and power outages etc..

The GFS also suggests a similar scenario but instead of inland it is slightly off the coast of NJ..

Folks , either way you look at this if you live on the east coast from the Carolinas North you need to be paying attention.

There is some folks talking on the internet about a fish storm..however..aside from the NOGAPS ..there is not a model suggesting that scenario. These folks just are afraid to deal with the possibility of a Major Hurricane Cat 3 or 4  ( carolinas) and a Cat 1 further north.

We have no changes with the map above that has been issued as the western extent as shown on the ECM is already covered in this tracking cone.

Please keep in mind that we are still about 5 days away so there is plenty of time to monitor..However..it would not hurt to start preparing NOW.

Please also keep in mind that even if you take a blend of the GFS/ECM for the track you are talking a coastal hugger if not inland track.

Please also remember when viewing the GFS on future runs that it has a bias of digging troughs to deep which gives it and its ensembles a SE bias.

Folks its hard to ignore the ECM..we will be monitoring this and updating all day today into early wed morning till 6 AM and then resume on Wed at 12 noon till about 6 PM and then 12 AM thursday morning till 6 AM friday morning to bring you the latest!