Persistent stationary front still resides across the southeast part of the USA..Low pressure is over southern Alabama. This stationary front then goes west to another area of low pressure over Kansas which then runs into an occluded front to a low pressure over Minnesota..with a cold front draped from west to east ..sagging south from a low pressure system in the southern tier of Canada above the Great lakes.
This frontal system out west and the area of low pressure with associated trough will begin to work its way to the east. Meanwhile the stationary front will begin to try and work its way towards the north,,and the cold front attached to the low pressure in Canada will slowly move also towards the south and east.
Shear on the order of 30-40 knots along with decent lift and instability should cause severe thunderstorm potential with the greatest risk being from Illinois/Indiana and points south as the frontal system moves east.
The primary threat appears to be wind damage.. There is some question as to whether or not convection occurring overnight tonight stabalizes the atmosphere…If this convection occurs and does not move out quick enough it would not allow enough daytime heating and destabalization as the trough and frontal system moves east.
Stay tuned in case further information is needed before 8-13-11!
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