Real Wx Service Look Ahead

As far as the short term is concerned : We see no reason to change our thinking from what we posted previously other then the showers may taper off on Friday evening instead of Friday afternoon. Otherwise a widespread 1-3 inches of rain with some local amounts to 4 inches possible.

Now lets look ahead. We have been talking about on our Facebook page how the Northeast in particular has been in a very wet pattern. Recently we had dried out but as you can tell with the above brief recap of the forecast that is about to change.

We get thru the first round which will deliver 1-3 inches across the region and then a cold front looks to cross the region on Monday. There could be some showers that accompany this cold front but they are anticipated to be on the light and scattered side.

There after is when guidance becomes more interesting again..

We are going to look at the GFS and the GFS ensemble means and the ECM…

Now as you can see the GFS shows a huge trough with cooler air spreading into the region and a intense low pressure over the lakes. This would appear to be another strong cold front advancing towards the region.

The European Computer Model or the ECM also shows a huge trough with an intense area of low pressure over the Great Lakes in support of a cold front advancing towards the region..However..the difference is the ECM also shows another area of low pressure that has developed along the cold front.

So, essentially the GFS/ECM agree on the over all trough and cold front but the disagreement comes with the secondary low pressure along the front. Or is there agreement? Lets look at the GFS ensemble means..

Look really closely here at 192 hours on the means and to the south of the low pressure area you will see where the isobars “buckle” south indicating a secondary low along the front..and now watch the next two frames..

And there you have it. The GFS ensemble means are actually in almost 100% agreement with the ECM operational run.

So what does this all mean? Well, essentially it means that if the guidance is correct this is what we could be looking at :

The fact is folks this is something that is about 8-10 days down the line and a lot could change between now and then but the suggestion is that we could be in for the return of what has been a very wet pattern.

Just for an example over the next 10 days the ECM has 3-4 inches of rain across E PA into NJ all of E NY and 5-6 inches of rain across Northern new England.

It is possible if the above scenario plays out as modeled that locations in western PA in the higher elevations and locations in NE pa in the higher elevations..could end up seeing snow showers and snow flurries AFTER the cold frontal passage.

Stay tuned and thank you for reading!