If you have been following us on our FB page
Then you are aware that for the past 24 hours we have been talking about this system for this time frame would be coming back west and more amplified. If you have not been following us on that page then you have been missing the latest updates! The page above is updated all day long where we only put out the major updates on the blog here.
We are not going to be re issuing a map for the event at this point and time but in the next 24 hrs. we will be issuing a final map. However…a lot has happened over the last 24 hrs. of modeling when it comes to this storm!
Weather outlets are still pretty much sleeping on the potential for the first snowfall in a lot of locations!
So lets look at the latest guidance and some additional images.
The first model we are placing up above is the 00z NOGAPS at 72 hrs. You can see by the image above that we have quite the potent system off the eastern seaboard. The reason this model is first is because it is the most progressive model and using it in its proper perspective if any model is east of this or in the same location then there is a high likely hood that the solution will move more west.
GFS at 66 and 72 hours! As you can see by the above images the GFS has come a good distance west from previous runs and perhaps the two most important aspects are:
1. Just about 48 hrs. ago it did not really even have this system..
2. It has come in more amplified since 24 hrs. ago and more so in the last 12 hrs.
This is something we said could happen as all the energy now expected to create this storm is now in better sample sounding areas and we would not be surprised to see this come further west at 12 Z and more amplified and amplification is KEY in OCTOBER!
The above is the 00z JMA. Now not that many weather outlets even bother with the JMA but this model has been consistent with showing a bigger storm along the east coast and we think this has merit since the rest of the guidance tonight has moved in that direction as well.
Next up is the 00z UKMET and you can see that the 00z UKMET is still showing a rather strong potent system along the east coast. This is another model that has been consistent with this solution save one run where it had actually kept the system way to the south!
The above is the 00z ECM. Now there are some people on the internet who must have been following a model other then the ECM because the ECM has been consistently showing this system along the east coast, amplified as a Major storm …except for one run where it was less amplified but never the less still along the east coast.
Now here is another image from the ECM which is the same hr. as above just this is at the surface..
Now as you can see by the above the temperatures drop off pretty quickly by this frame and this is because of that word I used earlier! DYNAMICS! What happens is the deformation band sets up and dynamics kick in and pull the colder air from the upper levels down to the surface and you are left with snow!
Now as one can plainly see the models are in very good agreement tonight at 00z. The guidance clearly shows a potent system along the east coast.
Now before we go into our thoughts we have some more images to show you! The first one is the 00z GFS ensemble means at 72 hrs. and we are going to show it twice..First as the normal image and the second one by Pro Met Dave Tolleris which we have very much respect for!
Now if you go back up you will see the operational and you can see that the GFS means is as AMPED as the operational but this is important, the image above is a smoothed down version of 12 individual members, . It is also further south then the operational.
Now what this implies is that in the individual members there is some very AMPED up members with a lot of QPF..and that is the reason why it is more south because the more amplification…the slower the system would move and also the more west the system would come. So the fact that the smoothed down means is AMPED up and the fact that it is further south we are anticipating this model to come slightly further west and more amplified!
Now to give you an idea of surface temperatures on this model:
66 hrs. and this is 2 PM Saturday and over a good portion of the region its in the 30s! Remember we came in more amped on the 00z run but if the thinking is correct on some more amplification then these temperatures could be lower (DYNAMICS) and potentially allow snowfall into the Major cities of the NE. For now the safest bet for the cities would be a rain to snow scenario.
However there is some interesting images and these are from the ECM..These are 3 hr. snowfall images from 66-69 hrs. and then 69-72 hrs..
So you can see that the 00z ECM does indeed show snow into the big cities as well as other inland locations.
Well…how about one more interesting image which is just showing percentages at this point of locations getting there first inch of the season: This is put out by HPC (PROFESSIONALS)
Wow, now that is pretty impressive for 72 hours out!
Remember folks that this is OCTOBER that we are talking about and if this happens as some of the guidance is suggesting and we have been thinking and talking about for quite some time now this storm will be making HISTORY in some parts of the Northern Mid Atlantic into the Northeast!
Stay tuned for another update after 12 Z and the final map later this evening or around this same time!
No comments:
Post a Comment