The Next Weather Maker

First off we like to say thank you to all the warm comments we have received from members via Facebook on the R.W.S weather page and the increased jump in membership which occurred because of the Pre Winter Storm Snowstorm of Oct 29th 2011.

We were anticipating a Historical Storm and as such we were not let down with impressive totals of 30 + inches in some locales and a widespread 6-12 across the region. As that becomes a staple of history..one thing we learned many years ago is that the weather MUST go on! And so we do!

So we turn our attention to the next weather maker.  Before we go into details lets look at the guidance.

We are going to start with the 12 Z guidance..

On the European Computer Model we see an area of low pressure over the SE Coast. Basically the European computer model shows a cold front marching across from west to east and a weak mid level shortwave develops a weak surface low and scoots an area of rain to the south of PA..

Now ..above is the UKMET and you can see that the UKMET has a very weak low off the Mid Atlantic Coast…At times the UKMET can be extremely useful when it is radically different in a track compared to the ECM because often times it will point out that the ECM is in error. We believe this is the case this time around as well and we are about to show you why shortly.

Now..above is the GFS from 12 Z and this model has the storm located pretty close to NW ARK at 96 hrs. but then as it moves it eastwards it essentially shears out and falls apart.

We feel at 12 Z that the GFS model was a complete outlier. Why? Well lets now look at 00z guidance for the same time frame (Friday 12 Z on the GFS)

Now we see that it has a more “coherent” low pressure area but a relatively weak system and located pretty much similar to the 12 Z ECM. This is usually the case where the ECM leads the way and eventually the GFS and rest of guidance will follow.

However…one thing that we teach all those interested in weather is to ALWAYS look to the ensemble means. Also remember we said we believe the UKMET above from 12 Z is acting as a red flag to the ECM ..and you see this when you turn to the ensemble means:

Notice where the low pressure is? It is essentially located in the vicinity of where the 12 Z UKMET was located and slightly more better organized.

So here is what we are anticipating:

We ask the readers to be very careful because there is some very confusing information going around on the internet about this next system and they are showing a system that starts in the Rockies and makes a Hook NNE into Minnesota. That is the NEXT SYSTEM after this system!

Essentially what we are dealing with is an area of low pressure that will move out of the Southwest in a east to northeast fashion. Extending from this area of low pressure is a cold front that essentially runs from the SW to the NE to a low pressure area up in South Central Canada. As that low in South Central Canada moves east it will drag the cold front from west to east across the USA..while our storm system moves ENE.

This storm system will allow  areas in the west like Colorado and Wyoming the opportunity to pick up some snowfall before it starts to move East Northeast.

As it moves further east with no cold air source in place it will produce showers and thunderstorms along the front with the possibility of some of the storms going severe.

Further to the east , on the east coast it should produce showers of rain but since the flow is relatively fast in the upper levels we are not expecting the system to become intense enough  to produce any heavy rains..

After that area of low pressure moves past the region..High pressure will build across the east and the action will turn to the west with storm potential #2 but this storm will take a hook turn NNE and move across Minnesota while the east is under the influence of high pressure.

While not going into details on the second system this is generally the track expected..

The most we can say at this time is this looks to be a potentially stronger system that may actually have severe weather out ahead of it.

Stay tuned as we keep you ahead of the rest!