Real Wx Services Look Ahead

There is actually a lot to talk about in this update. Presently we have a low pressure area spinning across the great lakes region which brought the region anywhere from 1 to as much as 4 inches of rain ..

So with that out of the way lets look at the tropics first.

Why are we looking at the tropics you may be asking? Well in the lower left you will see in the western Caribbean an AOI or an area of interest. This area of interest is suggested by the National Hurricane Center to have  20% chance of development as it relatively remains stationary.

Conditions are favorable for development though at this point and time the models like the ECM do not really develop it.

We are not going to dive to much into this at this point and time but the shear is favorable and so is the convergence and divergence (images below)

So some slow development of this is possible with the favorable conditions present.

Now moving on to what should become the next weather maker across the area.

Before we go into any details & images on this system its important that we take a look at the teleconnections that are projected to be in place.

The above is the Arctic Oscillation and this is important because it shows the AO taking a dive and then towards the end of the period it becomes split with some members going positive and some staying negative. A negative AO generally means colder then normal temperatures.

The North Atlantic Oscillation again is expected to go negative and then towards the end of the period the ensemble members become split and some go positive and some remain negative. A negative NAO represents colder then normal temperatures as well.

The pacific North American Oscillation or the PNA is shown above and is generally expected to remain positive though towards the end there is a question mark with some not as positive and some showing slightly negative. A positive PNA means a trough on the eastern part of the USA with ridging out west so what you end up with temperature potentially looks like this:

So with that out of the way lets look at next week on the guidance.

Now what you see here is the GFS at 12 Z , along with the ECM is bringing a cold front towards the region. Now the difference between the models is essentially the GFS develops a wave of low pressure along the front while the ECM more or less takes low pressure along the southern Canadian area and drags the cold front towards the region. Both models are showing precipitation . Both models are suggesting a wet time period.

We think this is going to be a slow moving front ..Slow in its approach and slow in its passage..which should imply that showers of rain should approach the region late Tuesday night or early Wednesday and be around thru about late Thursday night early Friday.

At the present time we are leaning more towards the ECM on this forecast with the look ahead. We do not believe (at the present time) that there will be another wave developing along the front AKA like the GFS which would keep precipitation across the area into that weekend..Instead we think the cold front will cross the area sometime Thursday  and if there is any moisture left on the backside with colder temperatures dropping into the 30s some locations have the potential to see backside snowflakes. This is reflected in our map below:

 

Stay tuned as we continue to stay on top and ahead of the rest of the weather outlets.