For those of you who are not aware of what Level 3 Alert is …here is the definition:
Level 3 Alert : Ruh Roh . This means models have converged on a solution and now is likely that a significant winter weather will be effecting the area...
Once a storm is within 24 hrs. and the first preliminary map is issued ..depending on the scenario it will state which level is in effect and there will also be a special weather statement issued.
So as of 4 AM we are issuing a level 3 Alert for the first widespread early PRE WINTER SNOWSTORM!
Lets get right into it shall we?
Models have converged on a solution ..Low pressure will start to develop over the SE by about 18 Z or 2 PM today . Then by about 00z or 8 PM we will see another low begin to take shape off Cape Hatteras. The northern stream piece of energy will be digging a trough into the eastern regions and this will cause the northern stream energy to phase with our southern stream energy along the coast and cause the trough to go negative tilt and pull this system up the eastern seaboard so that by about Sunday 00z or *Saturday evening* we have a Nor'easter about 50-75 miles east of Southern New Jersey!
Meanwhile cold air is filtering into the region now and because the upper levels are cold which you will see on the images that will be posted & the dynamics that will be in place..this storm will cause dynamical cooling to occur thru a large portion of the region.
This storm will have plenty of moisture to tap into with 1-2 inches liquid equivalent. If this were the dead of winter we would be talking about 1-2 feet of snow for most if not all locations including the big cities.
However we are talking about October 29th…and with the waters warm for this time of the year ..this will pull some warmer air in off the ocean and into those coastal locations and this will keep the snowfall totals on the lower side and allow either a rain transitioning to snow or a mainly rain event depending on where you are located on the map above.
Now lets look at the guidance from 00z…
As you can see the GGEM/GFS/ECM/UKMET are all essentially on the same page! There are some folks out there saying that the GGEM and UKMET are east of the GFS and ECM but the images above show remarkable agreement! As you can see the 850s are also supportive of frozen precipitation.
The GFS is the most AMPED solution out of the 00z guidance and its means is amped even more.
We believe that the best combination of models to blend together is the GFS & the ECM. This is how we came up with the above image for total snowfall!
There is some possibility that this could come slightly further west yet based on the GFS means and the 00z NOGAPS which since it is the most progressive model looked like this..
To show you some snowfall images from the 00z ECM we can show you the following:
These are three hour totals to give you an idea at 10:1 ratios. We think the snow ratios will be along the lines of 7:1 .
A problem with the upcoming storm system is that with the high pressure to the North and the deepening low pressure and the time of the year we are dealing with will be the snow will be a heavy wet, plastering snow. This means we could have power lines down and tree limbs down.
This storm if it pans out the way we are thinking and the way guidance is suggesting is about to make weather history for the region!
We have been talking about this storm for some time now and we have been ahead of ALL the major media outlets with the NWS just catching on yesterday afternoon!
If you have not yet done so..now is the time to find us on Facebook and let your friends and family know that this outlet has spread the word about this storm to you well in advance of the rest of the media!
Stay tuned next update if needed will be later this afternoon!
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