May 1st 2010 Western Mid-Atlantic Convective Outlook Forecast

Trigger: Advancing Cold Front; FROPA.

Most action for tomorrow looks to be based on the western areas of the Mid-Atlantic, with perhaps some action more to the east. R.W.S has decided to go with a Slight risk, which targets the western areas of the Mid-Atlantic with a Moderate Chance of the Slight Risk actually being fulfilled, whereas the area more to the east of there, was placed under a Isolated Chance of the Slight Risk actually occurring.

• Dew Points: 55F to 65F
• Temperatures: 70F to 90F
• Mean Craven Brooks Parameter: >= 1000 m3/s3 and <>
• Mean Supercell Composite: >= 1 and <>
• Lifted Index: -1F to -2F
• CAPE: >= 500J/kg and <= 1000J/kg
• 0-6km Bulk Shear: >= 30 kts and <= 40 kts
• Effective Bulk Shear: >= 30 kts and <= 40 kts
• Mean 0-1km Helicity: >= 50 m2/s2 and <= 100 m2/s2