Probably one of the most important questions at this time is focused on the El Nino. Is the El Nino really dying and fading away or is the El Nino simply relocating or shifting its forcing from west based to east based?
The answer to this question is important as it has bearings on the Hurricane season coming up from June to the End of November and perhaps as important but more away in the distance would be Winter of 2010-2011.
Last summer ended up being a weak el Nino and this kept hurricane season rather low compared to normal. By winter time a moderate to strong El Nino was in place 1.8 which provided record season snows across the mid atlantic.
So what we at Real Wx Services are trying to figure out will effect the hurricane season as well as winter and that is a piece of the puzzle that we are trying to solve.
At this point and time the SOI is positive…Normally a positive SOI does not bode well for El Ninos and is more in line with a La Nina instead. However, last winter towards its beginning, we also had a positive SOI but we never had a La Nina. So one thing winter of 2009-2010 taught us is that the SOI can be positive with an El Nino still in place and what this does is it really becomes decoupled from the El Nino and not very reliable to determine Enso Status.
A El Nino for the summer would once again more then likely cut back on the hurricane activity because it would cause an increase in shear, & dry air.
Basically the most we can do right now is observe the weekly ENSO readings as well as the daily readings. So with that in mind here was the daily readings as of yesterday.
As of yesterday the Eastern regions are quite warm with Nino 2 at 2.1 and Nino 1.2 around 1.4. As the western side of the El Nino region is actually on the decline. So this is something that we at Real Wx Services is going to continue to keep an eye on!
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